Macro Notes · Research & Models

Promising theses.
Deeper research.

Each month, we investigate one of the most promising macro investment theses we identify. Founding members receive the complete research report, original datasets and an editable model to explore the economics, assumptions and opportunities behind it.

Subscribe to Founding Commission custom research ↗

Included with Macro Notes Founding · $1,500 per year · Subscribe on Substack.

The first release · Included with Founding
Satellite above Earth’s horizon
MODEL 001 NOVEMBER 30, 2026

SpaceX & the
Space Economy

Seven interconnected markets. A planned 30+ company research universe. Original datasets and an editable model of the economics behind the space economy.

Publishes November 30, 2026View the research ↗
Upcoming research

Our research agenda.

Themes we plan to investigate.
Research & models included with Founding.

20 upcoming research themes

Coming soon · Included with Founding
01
AI infrastructure

AI Datacenter Power

Trace datacenter spending through the equipment and infrastructure needed to bring new power capacity online.

View more

The research question

Which suppliers have the strongest economic exposure to datacenter power investment?

Planned coverage

Power equipment, grid connections, backup generation and selected listed suppliers.

The model

Capacity and spending scenarios, with supplier revenue sensitivities.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
02
AI infrastructure

Liquid Cooling Economics

Examine the economics of liquid cooling and how adoption could translate into supplier revenue and margins.

View more

The research question

How much value can suppliers capture as rack power density increases?

Planned coverage

Cooling architectures, component suppliers, competitive positioning and margin drivers.

The model

Adoption, spending per rack and revenue sensitivity scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
03
AI infrastructure

AI Optical Networking

Map the network components behind AI clusters and the economics of the transition to faster optical connections.

View more

The research question

Which parts of the optical networking supply chain capture incremental spending?

Planned coverage

Optical modules, switches, interconnects and selected supplier exposures.

The model

Volume, average selling price and product-mix scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
04
AI infrastructure

Memory & HBM Cycle

Understand the relationship between memory capacity, product mix, pricing and manufacturer profitability.

View more

The research question

What pricing and volume assumptions are required to sustain supplier earnings?

Planned coverage

DRAM, NAND and HBM, selected manufacturers and disclosed capacity plans.

The model

Revenue and earnings sensitivities to pricing, volumes and margins.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
05
AI infrastructure

Sovereign AI Infrastructure

Assess how national AI infrastructure plans could become equipment orders and supplier revenue.

View more

The research question

Which announced projects have a credible path to funded deployment?

Planned coverage

Project announcements, disclosed commitments, timelines and supplier exposure.

The model

A selected-project tracker and spending scenarios by deployment stage.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
06
Energy & resources

Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

Follow the economics of uranium, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication across the nuclear supply chain.

View more

The research question

Which parts of the fuel cycle offer the clearest exposure to supply and demand changes?

Planned coverage

Fuel-cycle suppliers, disclosed capacity, contract structures and project risks.

The model

Selected-company comparisons and price, capacity and contract sensitivities.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
07
Technology & industry

European Defense Backlogs

Connect defense order books with production capacity, margins, working capital and cash generation.

View more

The research question

How much of a reported backlog can convert into earnings and free cash flow?

Planned coverage

Selected European defense suppliers, disclosed orders and capacity expansion.

The model

Backlog conversion, margin and working-capital scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
08
Technology & industry

Warehouse Automation ROI

Evaluate warehouse automation through deployment costs, operating savings and supplier economics.

View more

The research question

Under which assumptions does warehouse automation deliver an attractive payback?

Planned coverage

Selected warehouse workflows, automation suppliers and implementation risks.

The model

An adjustable deployment model for capex, labor savings and maintenance.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
09
Technology & industry

Satellite Internet Economics

Explore the operating economics of satellite connectivity and the assumptions behind network profitability.

View more

The research question

What subscriber, pricing and replacement-cost assumptions make a network viable?

Planned coverage

Network economics, publicly disclosed operating data and selected supply-chain exposures.

The model

Subscriber, revenue, launch-cost and constellation-renewal scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
10
Healthcare

Longevity Business Models

Compare how a defined segment of the longevity economy turns prevention and recurring care into revenue.

View more

The research question

Which business models can build durable economics around healthier aging?

Planned coverage

Planned coverage: diagnostics, preventive care or recurring health services.

The model

Selected-company comparisons, recurring revenue and margin scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
11
Energy & resources

Nuclear Fusion: Commercialization & Supply Chain

Map fusion technologies, commercialization milestones and the suppliers that could earn revenue along the way.

View more

The research question

Where could economic value emerge before commercial fusion power is established?

Planned coverage

Selected developers, disclosed funding, technical milestones and enabling components.

The model

A project and supplier map with milestone-based deployment scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
12
Global economies

Japan: Rates, Yen & Corporate Returns

Connect Japan’s macroeconomic outlook with the earnings drivers of banks, exporters and domestic businesses.

View more

The research question

How would different rate and yen scenarios affect selected Japanese business models?

Planned coverage

Rates, currency, capital returns and a selected group of Japanese companies.

The model

A macro dashboard with company earnings and valuation sensitivities.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
13
Global economies

India: Manufacturing & Infrastructure

Map selected industrial investment projects and their links to equipment, logistics and infrastructure suppliers.

View more

The research question

Which businesses have measurable exposure to manufacturing and infrastructure investment?

Planned coverage

Disclosed projects, capacity plans, supplier economics and execution risks.

The model

A selected-project tracker with capex and supplier exposure scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
14
Global economies

China: Consumption & Household Confidence

Examine household demand through the operating drivers of selected Chinese consumer businesses.

View more

The research question

Which business models are most sensitive to recovery or persistent weakness in consumption?

Planned coverage

Selected consumer segments, household indicators, business models and valuation comparisons.

The model

A consumption dashboard with segment revenue and margin scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
15
Energy & resources

Water: Desalination, Treatment & Reuse

Compare the economics of water infrastructure and the recurring revenue models of its equipment and service providers.

View more

The research question

What makes a water project or supplier economically attractive?

Planned coverage

Planned coverage: desalination, industrial treatment or water reuse.

The model

Cost-per-cubic-meter scenarios for energy, financing, maintenance and utilization.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
16
Energy & resources

Copper: Supply Pipeline & Project Economics

Assess selected copper projects and producers under different commodity prices and development costs.

View more

The research question

Which projects remain financially resilient across a range of copper prices?

Planned coverage

Disclosed mining projects, selected producers, development schedules and financing risks.

The model

A selected-project pipeline with production, cost and investment sensitivities.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
17
Technology & industry

Global Shipping: Routes, Fleets & Freight Rates

Link fleet deliveries, trade routes and freight rates to the economics of a selected shipping segment.

View more

The research question

How do changes in vessel supply and voyage distances affect operator profitability?

Planned coverage

Planned coverage: container shipping, tankers or dry bulk.

The model

Fleet, utilization, freight-rate and break-even scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
18
Financial systems

Insurance: Catastrophe Risk & Pricing

Analyze underwriting profitability, investment income and capital resilience for selected insurers or reinsurers.

View more

The research question

Under what conditions does pricing adequately compensate for the risks assumed?

Planned coverage

Selected insurers or reinsurers, reported financials and disclosed catastrophe exposure.

The model

Premium, combined-ratio, investment-income and loss scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
19
Financial systems

Cross-Border Payments & Stablecoin Economics

Compare payment rails through transaction costs, monetization, compliance expenses and operating leverage.

View more

The research question

Which payment business models can retain value as settlement costs change?

Planned coverage

Selected payment providers, traditional and stablecoin-based rails, and disclosed economics.

The model

Transaction economics and volume, fee and margin scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models
20
Energy & resources

Critical Minerals: Rare Earths & Permanent Magnets

Trace dependencies and project economics from rare-earth extraction and separation to magnet production.

View more

The research question

Where could capacity constraints translate into sustainable supplier economics?

Planned coverage

Mining, separation, refining, magnet production and selected project risks.

The model

A selected-capacity map with price and production-ramp scenarios.

Included with Founding

A research report, an editable model, source references and dated assumptions. Coming soon; a publication date has not yet been announced for this theme.

Coming soon Included with Founding
Subscribe to Founding Monthly research & models

These are upcoming research themes, not reports available for immediate download. We select one thesis each month as the evidence and opportunities develop. Publication dates for individual themes will be announced when confirmed.

Included with Founding

One membership.
A new thesis each month.

  1. Join Macro Notes Founding on Substack.

    $1,500 per year for the monthly Research & Models programme, alongside the existing Founding benefits.

  2. Receive each monthly publication.

    The first release, SpaceX & the Space Economy, publishes on November 30, 2026.

  3. Read the analysis. Explore the model.

    Work through the evidence and adjust the assumptions in the accompanying model. Each new monthly release is included while your Founding membership is active.

Custom research · Commissioned separately

Your question.
A dedicated research mandate.

Commission an independent research project on a company, industry or economic question that matters to your team. We agree the scope, deliverables and timeline before work begins, then carry out the research for you.

  • A scope built around your research question
  • A report, supporting data and models as agreed
  • Private delivery to the commissioning client

Before you join.

What research is included with Founding?

Founding members receive one in-depth Research & Model publication each month on a macro investment thesis selected by our team. Each release includes the research report, supporting datasets and an editable model. The first, SpaceX & the Space Economy, publishes on November 30, 2026.

How much does Founding cost?

Macro Notes Founding is $1,500 per year, with subscriptions managed through Substack. Choose the Founding plan on the subscription page.

Are all catalogue themes already available?

No. Themes marked Coming soon are part of our upcoming research agenda. They do not have a confirmed publication date. We select the most promising thesis each month and announce the release as it is prepared.

Is this included with Macro Notes Premium?

The monthly Research & Models programme is included with Founding membership. A standard Premium subscription covers the newsletter and its existing benefits; upgrade to Founding to receive the research models.

Is custom research included with Founding?

No. Custom research is a separate commissioned service, starting at $5,000. We agree the research question, scope, price, deliverables and delivery timeline with the client. It is delivered privately to the commissioning client.

What sources and assumptions will the models use?

Sources depend on the theme and may include company filings, official statistics, contract disclosures and industry publications. Reported figures, estimates and scenario assumptions are distinguished, with sources, dates and limitations documented.

Does this provide personalized investment advice?

No. Our publications and models provide general research. They do not assess your personal financial circumstances or provide personalized portfolio recommendations.